Real estate agents arrive at a brokers tour showing a house for sale in San Rafael, California.
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Higher interest rates took some recent wind out of the sails in the mortgage market.

After gains the previous week, total mortgage application volume fell 1.1% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of up to $548,250 increased to 3.10% from 3.03%. Points, including origination fee, rose to 0.34 from 0.30 for loans with a 20% down payment.

“Increased optimism about the strength of the economy pushed Treasury yields higher following last week’s FOMC meeting. Mortgage rates in response rose across all loan types, with the benchmark 30-year fixed rate reaching its highest level since early July 2021,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

Applications to refinance a home loan, which are highly sensitive to weekly rate movements, decreased 1% from the previous week and were essentially flat from a year ago. The increase in interest rates occurred late in the week and continued into this week, suggesting the negative effect on refinance demand will be more severe in next week’s report.

Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 1% last week and were 12% lower than a year ago. The weakness in purchase demand is less about rising interest rates, which are still historically low, and more about sky-high home prices.

Prices nationally increased 19.7% year over year in July, up from an 18.7% annual increase in June, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. That’s another record increase.

“With home-price appreciation continuing to run hot, increasing more than 19 percent annually in July, applications for larger loan amounts continue to outpace lower-balance loans. The average loan size for a purchase application reached $410,000, its highest level since May 2021,” Kan said.

Price gains are expected to soon start cooling slightly, simply because sales have dropped and more supply is coming on the market. Higher mortgage rates will also take some of the fuel out of rising prices, since potential buyers would face higher monthly payments.

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren charged Tuesday that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has led an effort to weaken the nation’s banking system, and she vowed to oppose his renomination.

In remarks made during a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, the Massachusetts Democrat cited several instances where she said the Powell Fed has watered down post-financial crisis bank regulations.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) questions Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell during a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the CARES Act, at the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, DC, U.S., September 28, 2021.
Kevin Dietsch | Reuters

“Your record gives me grave concerns. Over and over, you have acted to make our banking system less safe, and that makes you a dangerous man to head up the Fed, and it’s why I will oppose your renomination,” Warren said.

Powell did not respond to Warren’s comment that she will oppose him.

Warren said deregulatory moves could cause another calamity the likes of which the U.S. saw during the 2008-09 breakdown of Wall Street institutions.

She called Powell “lucky” that banks thus far have been able to avoid major problems, citing the Archegos Capital Management collapse and the banking industry’s collective need for Fed assistance during the coronavirus pandemic as dangers to the system exacerbated by deregulatory moves.

“So far you’ve been lucky. But the 2008 crash shows what happens when the luck runs out,” she said. “The seeds of the 2008 crash were planted years in advance by major regulators like the Federal Reserve that refused to rein in big banks. I came to Washington after the 2008 crash to make sure nothing like that would ever happen again.”

Powell has served since 2018 and his term expires in February. Wall Street widely expects President Joe Biden to renominate Powell, though Warren and other more liberal senators are likely to provide some resistance.

Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell appears before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the CARES Act, at the Hart Senate Office Building on September 28, 2021 in Washington, DC.
Matt McClain | AFP | Getty Images

Even if he does seek to give Powell another term, Biden will have a chance to remake the Fed.

Randal Quarles, the current vice chair in charge of supervision, will see his term expire in October, and current Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who favors a stronger regulatory hand, has been given frequent mention as a potential replacement.

Vice Chairman Richard Clarida will see his time on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors expire in January, and there remains another vacancy on the board.

Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., grilled Powell during the hearing on the lack of diversity at the central bank. Biden will face pressure to provide a diverse set of nominees for the Fed vacancies.

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speak Tuesday to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on efforts their respective institutions have taken to combat the pandemic’s impact on the economy.

In prepared remarks for the congressionally mandated testimony, Powell noted the importance of the joint aid, saying the Fed’s lending programs specifically “have served as a backstop to key credit markets and helped to restore the flow of credit from private lenders through normal channels.”

Separately, Yellen said she is “optimistic about the medium-term trajectory of our economy,” though she, like Powell, noted that the Covid delta variant has slowed the recovery.

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