Author: smarttalksucce

Private payroll growth held strong in October while worker pay rose as well, particularly in the leisure and hospitality industry, according to a report Wednesday from payroll processing firm ADP.

Companies added 239,000 positions for the month, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 195,000 and better than the downwardly revised 192,000 in September. Wages increased 7.7% on an annual basis, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

Job gains were especially strong in the pivotal leisure and hospitality sector, which added 210,000 positions while wage growth accelerated 11.2%. The industry, which includes hotels, restaurants, bars and related businesses, is seen as a bellwether as it took the hardest Covid hit and is still below pre-pandemic levels.

All the job growth came from services-related industries, which added 247,000 jobs, while goods-producing sectors lost 8,000 jobs, due largely to a loss of 20,000 manufacturing positions. Trade, transportation and utilities rose by 84,000.

“This is a really strong number given the maturity of the economic recovery but the hiring was not broad-based,” ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, said. “Goods producers, which are sensitive to interest rates, are pulling back, and job changers are commanding smaller pay gains. While we’re seeing early signs of Fed-driven demand destruction, it’s affecting only certain sectors of the labor market.”

The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates in an effort to cool inflation running near its highest level in more than 40 years. One primary aim is the historically tight labor market, where job openings outnumber available workers by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

While the headline ADP number was strong, the details looked weaker.

Along with the decline in construction jobs, information (-17,000), professional and business services (-14,000) and financial activities (-10,000) also showed losses.

By business size, companies with between 50 and 249 employees had virtually all the gains, adding 241,000.

The ADP report comes two days before the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That report is expected to show growth of 205,000, from September’s 263,000.

Job openings surged in September despite Federal Reserve efforts aimed at loosening up a historically tight labor market that has helped feed the highest inflation readings in four decades.

Employment openings for the month totaled 10.72 million, well above the FactSet estimate for 9.85 million, according to data Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

The total eclipsed August’s upwardly revised level by nearly half a million.

Fed policymakers watch the JOLTS report closely for clues about the labor market. The latest numbers are unlikely to sway central bank officials from approving what likely will be a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase this week.

September’s data indicates that there are 1.9 job openings for every available worker. The disparity in supply and demand has helped fuel a wage increase in which the employment cost index, another closely watched data point for the Fed, is growing at about a 5% annual pace.

In other economic news Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index posted a 50.2 reading, representing the percent of companies reporting expansion for October. That was slightly better than the Dow Jones estimate for 50.0 but 0.9 percentage point lower than September.

One good piece of news from the ISM data: The prices index fell another 5.1 points to a 46.6 reading, indicating a lessening of inflation pressures. Order backlogs also declined, dropping 5.6 points to a 45.3 reading, while supplier deliveries fell 5.6 points to 46.8 and employment edged higher to 50.

Hiring numbers have stayed solid, though they are slowing.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for October is expected to show growth of another 205,000, which while strong by historical levels would represent a further deceleration after averaging gains of 444,000 for the first half of 2022 but 372,000 over the past three months.

Hiring declined by 252,000 in September, while quits edged lower. Total separations showed a sharp decline, falling by nearly 400,000 to a rate of 3.7% as a share of the labor force, down from 4% in August.

Respondents to the ISM survey indicated various pressures continuing, while abating in other areas.

“Challenges with labor and parts delivery are easing. Order levels are slowing down after pent-up demand in the previous month,” said one respondent in the transportation equipment industry.

Another, in the food, beverage and tobacco sector, noted that the “growing threat of recession is making many customers slow orders substantially. Additionally, global uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine (war) is influencing global commodity markets.”

The Fed releases its rate decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Markets are pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a 0.75 percentage point increase, while narrowly expecting another 0.5 percentage point move in December, according to CME Group data.