Author: smarttalksucce

The rate for the most common kind of mortgage just surged again.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage shot significantly higher Friday, rising 24 basis points to 4.95%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It is now 164 basis points higher than it was one year ago.

“That’s the second time this week, and it puts this week on par with the worst week from the 2013 taper tantrum — a record we didn’t see being legitimately challenged a few days ago,” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.

On Tuesday, the rate had hit 4.72%, a 26-basis-point jump from March 18. The quicker-than-expected rise in rates has weighed on demand for mortgages and refinancing loans.

The rate surged as the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury also took off. Mortgage rates follow that yield loosely, but not entirely. Mortgage rates are also influenced by demand for mortgage-backed bonds. The Federal Reserve is scaling back its holdings of these assets and is also hiking interest rates.

It couldn’t come at a worse time, as the all-important spring housing market gets underway. Potential buyers are already facing extraordinarily tight supply and sky-high prices. With both rates and prices considerably higher, the median mortgage payment is now more than 20% higher than it was a year ago.

Buyers are also facing inflation on everything else in their budgets, which exacerbates the affordability issues. Rents are also surging higher at a record rate, causing more potential buyers to be unable to put aside money for a down payment. In addition, as rates rise, some buyers will no longer qualify for a mortgage. Lenders have been much more strict about how much debt a borrower may take on in relation to income.

Economists are already beginning to revise their sales figures lower for the year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said Tuesday that he expects the rate to hover around 4.5% this year, after previously predicting it would stay at 4%.

NAR’s latest official prediction is for sales to drop 3% in 2022, but Yun now says he expects they will fall 6% to 8%. NAR has not officially updated its forecast.

In a grim sign for the housing market’s busiest season, pending home sales, which measure signed contracts on existing homes, fell 4.1% in February compared with January, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Sales were down 5.4% compared with February 2021. Analysts were expecting a slight gain. This is the fourth straight month of declines in pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, one to two months out.

Since this count is based on signed contracts in February, when mortgage rates really started to take off, it is a strong indicator of how the market is reacting to the new rate environment, especially as it is entering the crucial spring season.

Rates began rising in January and continued sharply higher in February. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is now more than a full percentage point higher than it was one year ago.

Regionally, pending sales rose 1.9% month to month in the Northeast but were down 9.2% from a year ago. In the Midwest, sales decreased 6.0% for the month and were down 5.2% from February 2021. In the South, sales fell 4.4% monthly and 4.3% annually, and in the West they were down 5.4% for the month and 5.3% from a year ago.

The jump in mortgage rates could not come at a worse time, as spring is historically the busiest season for the housing market.

“Most of my buyers are adjusting their target to buy the home they can afford at the higher rates,” said Paul Legere, a buyer’s agent with Joel Nelson Group in Washington, D.C. “There has been a pronounced sense of urgency to lock in a mortgage rate and get into a property. In my market at least, buyers are not electing to rent as an alternative.”

Today’s potential buyers are facing an expensive market. The median monthly payment on a new mortgage is now taking up a much larger share of a typical consumer’s income. It jumped 8.3% in February compared with January, according to a new index from the Mortgage Bankers Association. It is nearly 22% higher than it was in February 2021. For borrowers on the lower end of the market, that monthly payment is up nearly 10% month to month.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiked 73 basis points from December 2021 through February 2022. Together with increased loan application amounts, a mortgage applicant’s median principal and interest payment in February jumped $127 from January and $337 from one year ago,” said Edward Seiler, MBA’s associate vice president of housing economics.

Buyers continue to face a tight and pricey market. Now they have to factor in inflation in other parts of their budgets, as well. List prices for homes reaccelerated after a brief reprieve in the fall of last year, according to Realtor.com.

“As we move into the spring season, markets remain clearly tilted in sellers’ favor,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com. “However, with mortgage rates moving toward 5%, we are seeing early signs of a shift in housing fundamentals, as many people looking for a home have hit a ceiling on their ability to afford a home.”

Just 60 years ago, the U.S. and the Soviet Union were at the height of a Cold War that nearly resulted in nuclear warfare. Today, experts say, the U.S. and its old foe, now Russia, are headed into another one. But it won’t be the same.

“I think the second Cold War has already started,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics.

Angela Stent, senior advisor for Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, said, “I think that we are definitely headed into a 21st century version of the Cold War, but it’s going to be different from the Cold War that existed between 1949 and 1989.”

The unprecedented economic sanctions imposed against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine hint that the next Cold War will be mainly fought on the economic front.

“It’s hard to imagine a shooting war breaking out between Russia and the U.S.,” said Alan Gin, associate professor of economics at the University of San Diego. “I think that these sanctions will [continue] and then Russia will seek out other world partners, maybe like China and maybe some of the OPEC countries, and I think a lot of the battles then will be on the economic front.”

The crisis in Ukraine has already posed a new challenge to a market that has been recovering from the uncertainties of the pandemic.

“The market doesn’t like uncertainty, and this casts a lot of uncertainty in terms of the world economy,” said Gin.

In the longer term, the health of the market depends on where the crisis in Ukraine is headed next.

“If we were to see Kyiv fall or Ukraine fall, then we’d see equity markets take very big hits,” said Schenker. “If tactical nukes were to be deployed, the downside is immeasurable.”

Watch the video to find out more about how a new Cold War could impact the U.S. economy.