Getting inflation under control will require raising interest rates at a faster pace than normal even though the pace of price increases probably has peaked, Federal Reserve board member Christopher Waller said Wednesday.

That means the central bank likely will hike short-term rates by half a percentage point, or 50 basis points, at its meeting in May, and possibly follow it up with similar moves in the next several months, Waller told CNBC. The Fed normally increases in 25-basis-point increments. A basis point equals 0.01%.

“I think the data has come in exactly to support that step of policy action if the committee chooses to do so, and gives us the basis for doing it,” he said during a live “Closing Bell” interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen. “I prefer a front-loading approach, so a 50-basis-point hike in May would be consistent with that, and possibly more in June and July.”

Markets already have almost fully priced that level of increase at next month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, as well as the following session in June, according to CME Group data that tracks moves in the fed funds futures market. Pricing for July also is tilting that way, with a 56.5% probability of another 50-basis-point hike.

That means that should the Fed choose to move aggressively, it won’t come as a surprise.

Waller said he thinks the central bank can pull off the tighter policy now because the economy is strong enough to support higher rates. The Fed is looking to raise rates to stave off inflation running at its highest levels in more than 40 years.

“I think we’re going to deal with inflation. We’ve laid out our plans,” he said. “We’re in a position where the economy’s strong, so this is a good time to do aggressive actions because the economy can take it.”

Nevertheless, there is some disagreement over how aggressive FOMC members want to be in the inflation battle.

In March, those favoring a quarter-percentage-point hike held just a tiny majority over those who wanted to double that. Officials through their public statements have offered differing views about how far the Fed should go, with Waller part of a group that wants rates to go past “neutral,” or the point where they are considered neither restrictive nor stimulative. The neutral funds rate now is considered to be around 2.5%.

On the other side of the debate, policymakers including Fed board member Lael Brainard and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans have said in recent days that they would rather get the rate to neutral and then assess what future actions may be needed.

“I think we want to get above neutral certainly by the latter half of the year, and we need to get closer to neutral as soon as possible,” Waller said.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told the Financial Times that it’s “fantasy” to think rates can go to neutral and still bring down inflation.

For his part, Waller said he is confident inflation will start coming down, even though the Fed’s powers are limited to control the lagging supply chains associated with the current round of higher prices.

“All we can do is kind of push down demand for these products and take some pressure off the prices that people have to pay for these products,” Waller said. “We can’t produce more wheat, we can’t produce more semiconductors, but we can affect the demand for these products in a way that puts downward pressure and takes some pressure off of inflation.”

Earlier in the day, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, a former Fed chair, said of the agency’s board members, “It’s their job to bring inflation down.”

“They have a dual mandate. They will try to maintain strong labor markets while bringing inflation down,” Yellen said during an appearance before the Atlantic Council. “And it has been done in the past. It’s not an impossible combination, but it will require skill and also good luck.”

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The prices that goods and services producers receive rose in March at the fastest pace since records have been kept, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The producer price index, which measures the prices paid by wholesalers, increased 11.2% from a year ago, the most in a data series going back to November 2010. On a monthly basis, the gauge climbed 1.4%, above the 1.1% Dow Jones estimate and also a record.

Stripping out food, energy and trade services, so-called core PPI rose 0.9% on a monthly basis, nearly double the 0.5% estimate and the biggest monthly gain since January 2021. Core PPI increased 7% on a year-over-year basis.

PPI is considered a forward-looking inflation measure as it tracks prices in the pipeline for goods and services that eventually reach consumers.

Wednesday’s release comes the day after the BLS reported that the consumer price index for March surged 8.5% over the past year, above expectations and the highest reading since December 1981.

On the producer side, prices for final demand goods led with a 2.3% monthly rise, while services prices gained 0.9%, up sharply from the 0.3% February increase. Goods inflation has outstripped services during the Covid pandemic, but March’s numbers indicate that services are now catching up as consumer demand shifts.

Energy prices were the biggest gainer for the month, rising 5.7%, while food costs increased 2.4%.

Swelling inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to begin tightening monetary policy.

In March, the Fed increased its benchmark short-term borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage point as the first step in what is expected to be a series of hikes through the year. Markets are pricing in an almost certainty that the central bank will double that move at its May meeting, and will keep going until the fed funds rate hits about 2.5% by the end of the year.

Markets initially showed no reaction to the PPI news, with stock market futures hovering around flat and Treasury yields also little changed.

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Exhibitions are great platforms that bring various businesses and brands under the same roof from different places. Exhibitions are also an excellent way to attract potential leads and customers, so many business owners and marketers take advantage of the opportunity to showcase their products and services in exhibitions. According to recent statistics, about ninety per […]

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Prices that consumers pay for everyday items surged in March to their highest levels since the early days of the Reagan administration, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which measures a wide-ranging basket of goods and services, jumped 8.5% from a year ago on an unadjusted basis, above even the already elevated Dow Jones estimate for 8.4%.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI increased 6.5% on a 12-month basis, in line with the expectation. However, there were signs that core inflation appeared to be ebbing, as it rose just 0.3% for the month, less than the 0.5% estimate. That in turn sparked some hope that inflation overall was easing and that March might represent the peak.

Markets reacted positively to the report as stocks rose and government bond yields declined.

“The big news in the March report was that core price pressures finally appear to be moderating,” wrote Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. Hunter said he thinks the March increase will “mark the peak” for inflation as year-over-year comparisons drive the numbers lower and energy prices subside.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said the slowing increase in core CPI is a “welcome” development in the effort to bring down inflation.

“”I’ll be looking to see whether we continue to see moderation in the months ahead,” Brainard told the Wall Street Journal.

The data reflected price rises not seen in the U.S. since the stagflation days of the late 1970s and early ’80s. March’s headline reading in fact was the highest since December 1981. Core inflation was the hottest since August 1982.

Due to the surge in inflation, worker wages, despite rising 5.6% from a year ago, weren’t keeping pace with the cost of living. Real average hourly earnings posted a seasonally adjusted 0.8% decline for the month, according to a separate Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

The inability of wages to keep up with costs could add to inflation pressures.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve wage tracker for March indicated gains of another 6% which is “symptomatic of inflation pressures continuing to broaden,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings. Coulton pointed out that the core inflation deceleration was due largely to a drop in auto prices, while other prices continued to show increases.

Shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the CPI weighting, increased another 0.5% on the month, making the 12-month gain a blistering 5%, the highest since May 1991.

To combat inflation, the Fed has begun raising interest rates and is expected to continue doing so through the remainder of the year and into 2023. The last time prices were this high, the Fed raised its benchmark rate to nearly 20%, pulling the economy into a recession that finally defeated inflation.

Economists generally don’t expect a recession this time around, though many on Wall Street are raising the probability of a downturn.

“Overall, this report is encouraging, at the margin, though it is far too soon to be sure that the next few core prints will be as low; much depends on the path of used vehicle prices, which is very hard to forecast with confidence,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “We’re sure they will fall, but the speed of the decline is what matters.”

Price increases came from many of the usual culprits.

Food rose 1% for the month and 8.8% over the year, as prices for goods such as rice, ground beef, citrus fruits and fresh vegetables all posted gains of more than 2% in March. Energy prices were up 11% and 32%, respectively, as gasoline prices popped 18.3% for the month, boosted by the war in Ukraine and the pressure it is exerting on supply.

One sector that has been a major driver in the inflation burst subsided in March. Used car and truck prices declined 3.8% for the month, though they are still up 35.3% on the year. Also, commodity prices excluding food and energy fell by 0.4%.

Those declines, however, were offset by gains in clothing, services excluding energy and medical care, each of which increased 0.6% for the month. Transportation services also rose 2%, bringing its 12-month gain to 7.7%.

In a sign of economic recovery from a sector hard-hit during the Covid pandemic, airline fares jumped by 10.7% in the month and were up 23.6% from a year ago.

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Smart upgrades are the magic wand for increasing your rental property’s value affordably with minimum stress. However, ensure the cost of the refurb project has a bearing on the ultimate ROI to avoid sliding below the red line as you pay for it. Consider small adjustments around the house or yard to increase aesthetics, functionality, […]

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