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A sharp increase in mortgage interest rates is taking its toll on loan demand, especially refinances. Total mortgage application volume fell 8.1% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 4.50% from 4.27%, with points rising to 0.59 from 0.54 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.

“The jump in rates comes as markets moved to price in a much faster pace of rate hikes, as well as expectations of fewer MBS purchases from the Federal Reserve,” said Mike Fratantoni, the MBA’s chief economist. “MBA’s new March forecast expects mortgage rates to continue to trend higher through the course of 2022.”

As a result, applications to refinance a home loan, which are highly sensitive to weekly rate moves, fell 14% from the previous week and were 54% lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 44.8% of total applications from 48.4% the previous week.

“The number of high-quality refi candidates was already down more than 75% through last week – these latest jumps will likely cut that population even further,” said Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at Black Knight. “But, while we are now seeing declines in overall lending activity, cash-out lock volumes continue to hold stronger than rate/term refis against rising rates. This will be an important market segment for lenders, particularly given the record $10 trillion in tappable equity available being padded even further by the still red-hot housing market.”

Mortgage applications to purchase a home, which are less sensitive to weekly rate moves, fell 2% for the week and were 12% lower than the same week one year ago. Economists are starting to revise their home sales forecasts lower, due to rising rates. The housing market is already expensive, as a supply-demand imbalance puts upward pressure on prices. Rising rates are weakening affordability even further.

While overall purchase application volume was down slightly, there was a larger drop in FHA and VA loan demand. These loans are popular with lower-income homebuyers.

“First-time homebuyers, who rely on these government programs, are increasingly challenged by both the rapid increase in home prices and higher mortgage rates,” added Fratantoni.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 4.72% on Tuesday, moving 26 basis points higher since just Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily.

As a result of the recent spike in rates, economists are now lowering their home sales forecasts for this year.

Most estimates at the end of last year had the average 30-year mortgage rate hitting 4.5% by the close of 2022, but the war in Ukraine, rising oil prices and inflation have all lit a fire under interest rates. At this time in 2021, rates were about 3.45%

A shift in the policy outlook from the Federal Reserve, suggesting far more rate increases than expected, is pushing bond yields higher. The 30-year fixed mortgage loosely follows the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which is now at the highest level since May 2019.

“Rates have a small chance to top out before hitting 5% and a good chance of topping out before hitting 6%,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “It is a rapidly moving target in this environment, where we legitimately and unexpectedly find ourselves needing to be concerned with inflation for the first time since the 1980s.”

Economists had expected the rate to rise only slightly this year, but now that is changing.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, now says he expects the rate to hover around 4.5% this year, after previously predicting it would stay at 4%. NAR’s latest official prediction is for sales to drop 3% in 2022, but Yun now says he expects they will fall 6%-8% (NAR has not officially updated its forecast).

The rise in rates comes on top of an already sizzling housing market. Demand remains strong, and supply remains historically low. This has pressured home prices, which were already up 19% in January year over year, the latest read from CoreLogic.

“That is a double whammy that erodes affordability for homebuyers, especially first-timers,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “First-time buyers are a sizable part of prospective shoppers and their share of purchases has slipped from one year ago. We will be revising our home sales forecast a bit lower.”

Home sellers may also be adjusting their expectations. Asking prices slipped slightly last week, according to Realtor.com, despite the competitive market.

“In a potential sign that sellers are mindful of buyers’ tightening budgets as mortgage rates climb, last week’s data showed the first slowdown in asking price growth since January,” wrote Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

Hale said she may revise her sales forecast lower as well but hasn’t yet. She points out that while rising costs could cut into home sales, there are several offsetting factors, such as rent.

“Fast-rising rents aren’t offering any relief and may keep some would-be buyers on the hunt for a home, so that they can lock-in the bulk of their housing costs before inflation raises the bar yet again,” said Hale. 

“Demographics are also favorable for the housing market this year, with more than 45 million households in the 26-35 age range, which are key years for household formation and first-time home buying. However, the economic considerations for those households are going to be challenging,” she added.