Inflation in August was stronger than expected despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring down prices, according to data Friday that the central bank follows closely.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.6% for the month after being flat in July. That was faster than the 0.5% Dow Jones estimate and another indication that inflation is broadening.

On a year-over-year basis, core PCE increased 4.9%, more than the 4.7% estimate and up from 4.7% the previous month.

Including gas and energy, headline PCE increased 0.3% in August, compared with a decline of 0.1% in July. It rose even with a sharp decline in gas prices that took the cost at the pump well below the nominal record above $5 a gallon earlier in the summer.

The Fed generally favors core PCE as the broadest indicator of where prices are heading as it adjusts for consumer behavior. In the case of either core or headline, the data Friday from the Commerce Department shows inflation running well above the central bank’s 2% long-run target.

Outside the inflation data, the numbers showed that income and spending continues to grow.

Personal income rose 0.3% in August, the same as July and in line with the estimate. Spending rose 0.4% after declining 0.2% the month before, beating the 0.3% expectation. After-tax income increased just 0.1% after rising 0.5% the previous month, while inflation adjusted spending rose 0.1%.

The inflation data reflected the shift in spending from goods back to services, which saw respective gains of 0.3% and 0.6% on the month. Food prices rose 0.8% while energy prices slid 5.5%. Housing and utilities prices were up 1% while health care rose 0.6%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street.

The market, however, has been highly volatile as investors deal with the highest inflation since the early 1980s. To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve has enacted a series of interest rate increases this year totaling 3 percentage points, taking rates to their highest levels since early 2008.

However, with data showing that the rate hikes have yet to work their way through to bringing down prices, Fed officials have remained vigilant about the need to keep tightening policy.

Fed Chair Lael Brainard in a speech Friday morning cautioned against pulling back “prematurely,” saying rates will remain higher “for some time” until inflation is brought under control.

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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses members of his ruling AK Party (AKP) during a meeting at the parliament in Ankara, Turkey May 18, 2022. Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES. MANDATORY CREDIT
Murat Cetinmuhurdar | Reuters

Turkey will keep cutting interest rates, its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, despite soaring inflation at over 80%.

The central bank of Turkey will not be raising rates, he told CNN Turk on Wednesday night, adding that he expects the country’s key rate, currently 12%, to hit single digits by the end of this year.

Faced with deepening economic problems, Erdogan also took the time to throw some barbs at the U.K., saying that the British pound has “blown up.”

The U.K. currency recently hit a historic low against the U.S. dollar at close to $1.03, as the new Conservative government led by Prime Minister Liz Truss put forward an economic plan — based heavily on borrowing and tax cuts despite mounting inflation — that sent markets reeling.

It’s prompted alarmed reactions from U.S. economists, policymakers and the International Monetary Fund, with some saying the U.K. is behaving like an emerging market.

Turkey’s lira, meanwhile, hit a record low of 18.549 against the dollar on Thursday. The currency has lost roughly 28% of its value against the dollar this year and 80% in the last 5 years as markets shunned Erdogan’s unorthodox monetary policy of cutting interest rates despite high inflation.

“Oh the irony, Erdogan giving Truss advice on the economy,” Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in an email note. 

“Turkey has 80% inflation and I guess the worst performing currency over the past decade. Lol. How low the U.K. has sunk.”

People browse gold jewelry in the window of a gold shop in Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar on May 05, 2022 in Istanbul, Turkey. Gold prices ticked higher on Monday as the dollar hovered near recent lows, with investors’ focus being on a key U.S. inflation reading as it could influence the size of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate hike.
Burak Kara | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Erdogan doubled down on his controversial monetary plan on Thursday, saying that he told central bank decision-makers to continue lowering rates at its next meeting in October.

“My biggest battle is against interest. My biggest enemy is interest. We lowered the interest rate to 12%. Is that enough? It is not enough. This needs to come down further,” Erdogan said during an event, according to a Reuters translation.

“We have discussed, are discussing this with our central bank. I suggested the need for this to come down further in upcoming monetary policy committee meetings,” he added. Turkey’s central bank shocked markets with two consecutive 100 basis point cuts in the last two months, as many other major economies seek to tighten policy.

The lira meanwhile is set to fall further as Turkey prioritizes growth over tackling inflation, which is at its highest in 24 years. In addition to the skyrocketing living costs this has brought on Turkey’s population of 84 million, the country is burning through its foreign exchange reserves and has a widening current account deficit.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve raises its interest rate and the dollar grows stronger, Turkey’s many dollar-denominated debts, and the energy it imports in dollars, will only become more painful to pay for.

“With external financing conditions tightening, the risks remain firmly skewed to sharp and disorderly falls in the lira,” Liam Peach, a senior emerging markets economist, wrote in a note after Turkey’s last rate cut on Sept. 22.

“The macro backdrop in Turkey remains poor. Real interest rates are deeply negative, the current account deficit is widening and short-term external debts remain large,” he wrote. “It may not take a significant tightening of global financial conditions for investor risk sentiment towards Turkey to sour and add more downward pressure on the lira.”

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A person arranges groceries in El Progreso Market in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., August 19, 2022.
Sarah Silbiger | Reuters

Initial filings for unemployment claims fell last week to their lowest level in five months, a sign that the labor market is strengthening even as the Federal Reserve is trying to slow things down.

Jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 24 totaled 193,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s downwardly revised total and below the 215,000 Dow Jones estimate, according to a Labor Department report Thursday.

The drop in claims was the lowest level since April 23 and the first time claims fell below 200,000 since early May.

Continuing claims, which run a week behind, fell 29,000 to 1.347 million.

The strong labor numbers come amid Fed efforts to cool the economy and bring down inflation, which is running near its highest levels since the early 1980s. Central bank officials specifically have pointed to the tight labor market and its upward pressure on salaries as a target of the policy tightening.

Stocks plunged following the report while Treasury yields were higher.

“The recent decline in layoffs flies in the face of the Fed’s efforts to soften up labor market conditions and knock inflation back down toward its 2% target,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “The capital markets have heard the Fed, and investors are feeling the pain. But the jobs market? For now at least, it’s not listening.”

There was more bad news Thursday for the Fed on the inflation front.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite inflation gauge for the Fed, showed a 7.3% year-over-year price gain in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported in its final GDP estimate for the period. That was above the 7.1% reading in the prior two Q2 estimates and just off the 7.5% gain in the first quarter.

Excluding food and energy, core PCE inflation was 4.7%, 0.3 percentage point higher than the previous two estimates but below the 5.6% jump in Q1.

The Fed has raised interest rates five times in 2022 for a total of 3 percentage points, and officials have stressed the importance of continuing to hike until inflation comes down closer to the central bank’s 2% target.

“We have to do what we must do to get back to price stability, because we can’t have a healthy economy, we can’t have good labor markets over time, unless we get back to price stability,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” in an interview Thursday morning.

However, the Cleveland Fed’s own Inflation Nowcasting gauge shows little improvement on the inflation front in September even with a sharp decline in gas prices. The gauge is indicating an 8.2% increase in the headline consumer price index and a 6.6% increase in core prices, compared with respective readings of 8.3% and 6.3% in August.

The BEA’s final estimate for Q2 GDP was a decline of 0.6%, unchanged from the previous estimate. That was the second straight quarter of negative GDP, meeting a commonly accepted definition of a recession.

Correction: The final estimate for Q2 GDP was a decline of 0.6%, unchanged from the previous estimate. An earlier version misstated its status.

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