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Surging inflation has Americans reconsidering how they spend their money.

The Consumer Price Index, which measures a wide-ranging basket of goods and services, jumped 7.9% in February from 12 months prior. Prices are going up on everything from the food you put on the table to the gas that powers your car.

That’s weighing heavily on people’s minds, with 48% thinking about rising prices all the time, according to a CNBC + Acorns Invest in You survey, conducted by Momentive. The online poll was conducted March 23-24 among a national sample of 3,953 adults.

Three-quarters are worried that higher prices will force them to rethink their financial choices in the coming months, the survey found.

Inflation is costing the average U.S. household an additional $296 per month, according to a Moody’s Analytics analysis. Experts expect it to get worse before it gets better.

Still, there hasn’t been a significant impact on consumer spending, although retail sales grew at a slower pace than expected in February.

The biggest area people have cut back on is dining out, with 53% saying they’ve done so, according to the survey. They are also driving less and canceling monthly subscriptions, among other things.

If higher prices persist, dining out, driving and trips or vacations are the top three areas Americans plan to cut back on even more.

To be sure, the past year has been difficult for many. Fully 52% said they are under more financial stress than a year ago. They are most concerned about gas prices, housing costs and food costs. In the last year, gas spiked 38%, shelter rose 4.7% and food prices increased 7.9%.

Meanwhile, a bulk of Americans are unhappy with the response from the White House, with 61% disapproving of the way President Joe Biden is handling inflation.

The current environment has a majority of Americans concerned about an economic recession, with 81% of respondents believing one is likely to happen this year.

“People are definitely on edge,” said Moody’s Analytics’ chief economist Mark Zandi. “Recession risks are high.”

He puts the odds at 1 in 3 and rising.

Inflation was brought on by the pandemic, which scrambled supply chains and labor markets, and worsened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which impacted gas and food prices, Zandi explained.

“If that diagnosis is correct, as the pandemic fades and as we get the other side of the fallout of the Russian invasion, inflation should moderate,” he said.

However, consumers will be in for some more pain in the near term, as inflation continues, Zandi said.

“We’ve got a couple of bad months dead ahead,” he said.

He predicts inflation will peak around May and by this time next year, it will be a lot lower, depending on how global events play out, as well as the response by the Federal Reserve. The central bank increased interest rates last month to combat inflation and plans another six hikes this year.

If the Fed doesn’t calibrate things just right, the economy can go into a recession, Zandi warned.

The first thing you should do is get a handle on your financial situation.

Asking yourself some key questions can help you figure out where you may be able to trim expenses, said certified financial planner Ashton Lawrence, a partner at Goldfinch Wealth Management in Greenville, South Carolina.

“What’s the cash flow look like? What type of debt, how much debt are we looking at?” he said.

“It’s about making the small changes and controlling where you can control.”

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Once you see where you are spending money, break it down into needs and wants, and begin to cut back on things that are optional, said CFP Carolyn McClanahan, founder and director of financial planning at Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida.

In fact, eating out all the time not only costs more money than cooking at home, it’s also not as healthy, said McClanahan, who is also a medical doctor. When at the grocery store, use coupons and comparison shopping to help you save money.

There will be nights when time is tight and you are tempted to order takeout for dinner. McClanahan cooks in bulk on Sundays and puts meals in the freezer for those nights.

Carpooling or planning car trips to minimize driving can help with gas, as can working from home a few days a week, if feasible.

While it is natural to be concerned about rising prices, you can’t control them — and worrying about it isn’t good for your health, McClanahan said.

“Only think about the things that you can control,” she said.

“Making certain you are spending your money in a thoughtful fashion is the one thing you can do to help mitigate the outside world around you.”

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Disclosure: NBCUniversal and Comcast Ventures are investors in Acorns.

After two years of the coronavirus pandemic, a recession and a rapid recovery, Americans are worried that the economy may swiftly decline once again.

Some 81% of adults said they think the U.S. economy is likely to experience a recession in 2022, according to the CNBC + Acorns Invest in You survey, conducted by Momentive. The online survey of nearly 4,000 adults was conducted from March 23 to 24.  

Certain groups are anticipating a potential economic downturn more than others, the survey found. That includes Republicans, who are more likely to think there will be a recession than Democrats, as well as those who see themselves as financially worse off this year than they were last year.

What a recession means

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of calling recessions, defines one as “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

The last recorded recession took place in 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic spurred mass shutdowns and layoffs across the U.S.

Since, however, the U.S. economy has seen a stunning recovery. The labor market has added back millions of jobs and is nearing its pre-pandemic state. In addition, wages have gone up for many workers, including those in lower-paying jobs.

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Because of this, many economists aren’t too concerned that a recession is on the horizon.  

“If you look at the labor market data right now, you’d be hard pressed to find any indication of recession,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “Maybe a relative slowdown, but that’s from really hot to just hot.”

Risks on the horizon

Even though the labor recovery is still going strong, there are other forces impacting consumers.

Inflation, for example, has hit many Americans hard and could hinder the economic recovery. In February, the consumer price index surged 7.9% on the year, the highest since January 1982. Prices have gone up in many categories such as housing, food and energy.

“Inflation is the boogeyman when it comes to recoveries,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union.

That’s because if prices continue to climb — as they’re projected to — people may begin to pull back on spending, which could lead businesses to halt hiring. The Federal Reserve is also poised to continue to raise interest rates, which will slow down the economy to curb inflation.

This is a blunt tool, however, according to Bunker. The central bank must be careful to cool the economy enough to bring prices back down without tipping the U.S. into another recession.

There’s also geopolitical uncertainty around the war in Ukraine, which has contributed to rising fuel prices and will likely continue to pressure the global economy. In addition, the yield curve between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds recently inverted for the first time since 2019, a signal that has preceded recessions in the past.

Still, this isn’t a sure sign that a recession is on the horizon, said Frick.

“Of all the things you have to worry about, I don’t think that the yield curve inverting is one of them,” he said.

What to do now

While it may be too early for Americans to prepare for a recession, they could take steps now to better their financial situation regardless.

That includes boosting emergency and retirement savings, as well as trimming budgets to keep spending down amid inflation that’s likely to continue.

“It pays to take a step back and look at the positives and weigh the negatives against historical evidence,” Frick said. “If you do that with the odds of recession, they’re still relatively low, but risks are high, and uncertainty is high.”

SIGN UP: Money 101 is an 8-week learning course to financial freedom, delivered weekly to your inbox. For the Spanish version Dinero 101, click here.

Disclosure: NBCUniversal and Comcast Ventures are investors in Acorns.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, who normally favors loose policy and low rates, said Tuesday the central bank needs to act quickly and aggressively to drive down inflation.

In a speech written for a Minneapolis Fed discussion, Brainard said policy tightening will include a speedy reduction in the balance sheet and a steady pace of interest rate increases. Her comments indicated that rate moves could be higher than the traditional increments of 0.25 percentage point.

“Currently, inflation is much too high and is subject to upside risks,” she said in prepared remarks. “The [Federal Open Market] Committee is prepared to take stronger action if indicators of inflation and inflation expectations indicate that such action is warranted.”

The Fed already has approved one interest rate increase: a 0.25% hike at the March meeting, the first in more than three years and likely one of many to occur this year.

In addition, markets expect the Fed to lay out a plan at its May meeting for running down some of the nearly $9 trillion in assets, primarily Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, on its balance sheet. According to Brainard’s Tuesday comments, that process will be swift.

“The [FOMC] will continue tightening monetary policy methodically through a series of interest rate increases and by starting to reduce the balance sheet at a rapid pace as soon as our May meeting,” she said. “Given that the recovery has been considerably stronger and faster than in the previous cycle, I expect the balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery, with significantly larger caps and a much shorter period to phase in the maximum caps compared with 2017-19.”

Back then, the Fed allowed $50 billion in proceeds to roll off each month from maturing bonds and reinvested the rest. Market expectations are that the pace could double this time around.

The moves are in response to inflation running at its fastest pace in 40 years, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Market expectations are for rate increases at each of the remaining six meetings this year, possibly totaling 2.5 percentage points overall.