Smart Talk Success

The nation’s homebuilders aren’t seeing any relief from supply chain issues that have slowed construction recently, but high buyer demand appears to be making up for it.

Builder confidence in the single-family home construction market rose 4 points to 80 in October on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. That is still down from 85 in October 2020 and from the record high 90 in November of last year. Anything above 50 is considered positive.

“Although demand and home sales remain strong, builders continue to grapple with ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages that are delaying completion times and putting upward pressure on building material and home prices,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke, a homebuilder from Tampa, Florida, in a release.

Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions rose 5 points to 87. Sales expectations in the next six months increased 3 points to 84 and buyer traffic climbed 4 points to 65.

The biggest concern for builders now is affordability, as they raise prices to meet the rising costs of land, labor and materials.

The median price of a newly built home sold in August was 20% higher than August of 2020, according to the U.S. Census. While some of that is the mix of homes selling — more on the high end of the market — it also reflects builder increases.

Some builders have actually slowed home sales due to construction hurdles, as they are concerned they won’t be able to deliver houses at a normal pace.

Homebuyers are turning more and more to new construction, as the supply of existing homes for sale continues to be both incredibly lean and pricey.

“Building material price increases and bottlenecks persist and interest rates are expected to rise in coming months as the Fed begins to taper its purchase of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed debt,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist at the NAHB.

A forecast just released by the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage will hit 4% by the end of 2022, up from around 3% now.

Regionally, looking at the three-month moving averages builder sentiment in the Midwest rose 1 point to 69. In the Northeast it was unchanged at 72. Both the South and West were also unchanged at 80 and 83, respectively.

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said Friday he’s on board with reducing the amount of economic help the central bank is providing as concerns grow about inflation.

With the Fed indicating that it’s likely to start pulling back on its monthly bond purchases, Barkin said that seems reasonable, and he’s leaning toward beginning the process in November. Minutes from the September Fed meeting indicated that officials want to start tapering either next month or in December.

“If we do decide to taper at the next meeting, we’re going to have a discussion on which of those two dates, I’m sure, and my instinct would be if you’re going to decide it, go ahead and move,” he told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a live “Squawk Box” interview. “But I’m certainly going to be open to debates on both sides.”

Fed officials have indicated they’ve met their inflation goal of 2%, though the full and inclusive employment part of the mandate remains elusive despite significant progress.

Like many of his colleagues, Barkin pointed to temporary factors like supply chain problems that have pushed car prices higher as a major factor in driving inflation, which is running around a 30-year high.

But he also conceded that it’s been a bigger problem that he expected.

“I do think there’s risk on the inflation side, and I’m watching that very carefully,” he said.

The minutes showed that the pace of bond purchases likely will slow by about $15 billion each month — $10 billion in Treasurys and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities.

Fed officials have stressed that even after the start of tapering, it will be some time before interest rate hikes begin. Market pricing currently is for the first increase to come in July 2022, with another likely before the end of the year, according to the CME’s FedWatch tracker.

Barkin said he would base his rates decision on two factors — whether inflation is going to stay elevated or come back to its norm of around 1.5% to 2% of the past 25 years or so, and how close the labor market is to full employment.

“Is the labor market going to be this tight over the next six months? Is inflation going to come down or not?” he said. “Different answers to those questions in my mind would lead me to different points of view on when we would start to increase rates.”

He also was asked his position on whether Fed officials should be allowed to own individual stocks, but declined to answer pending an inquiry Chairman Jerome Powell is leading into best practices. Several officials have come under fire for trading stocks, and two regional presidents have resigned following controversies over their activities.