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Federal Reserve officials could begin reducing the extraordinary help they’ve been providing to the economy by as soon as mid-November, according to minutes from the central bank’s September meeting released Wednesday.

The meeting summary indicated members feel the Fed has come close to reaching its economic goals and soon could begin normalizing policy by reducing the pace of its monthly asset purchases.

In a process known as tapering, the Fed would reduce the $120 billion a month in bond buys slowly. The minutes indicated the central bank probably would start by cutting $10 billion a month in Treasurys and $5 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities. The Fed is currently buying at least $80 billion in Treasurys and $40 billion in MBS.

The target date to end the purchases should there be no disruptions would be mid-2022.

The minutes noted “participants generally assessed that, provided that the economic recovery remained broadly on track, a gradual tapering process that concluded around the middle of next year would likely be appropriate.”

“Participants noted that if a decision to begin tapering purchases occurred at the next meeting, the process of tapering could commence with the monthly purchase calendars beginning in either mid-November or mid-December,” the summary said.

The Fed next meets Nov. 2-3. Starting the tapering process in November is on the aggressive side of market expectations.

The minutes said members’ estimates “were consistent with a gradual tapering of net purchases being completed in July of next year.”

“If they announce [tapering] in November, I don’t see why they would wait. Just go ahead and get going,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. Jones said she was a bit surprised by a notation in the minutes that “several” members “preferred to proceed with a more rapid” tapering pace.

“That would be pretty aggressive,” she said. “There must be some outspoken people who are pretty concerned that they need to move even faster.”

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard is one such member, telling CNBC on Tuesday that he thinks tapering should be more aggressive in case the Fed needs to rate interest rates next year to combat persistent inflation.

At the September policymaking session, the committee voted unanimously to hold the central bank’s benchmark short-term borrowing rate at zero to 0.25%.

The committee also released the summary of its economic expectations, including projections for GDP growth, inflation and unemployment. Members scaled back their GDP estimates for this year but upped their outlook for inflation, and indicated they expect unemployment to be lower than earlier estimates.

Concerns about inflation

In the “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations for interest rates, the committee indicated it could begin raising interest rates as soon as 2022. Markets currently are pricing in the first rate hike for next September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Following the release of the minutes, traders increased the likelihood of a September hike to 65% from 62%.

Officials, though, stressed that a tapering decision should not be seen as implying pending interest rate hikes.

However, some members at the meeting showed concern that current inflation pressures might last longer than they had anticipated. Traders are pricing in a 46% chance of two rate hikes in 2022.

“Most participants saw inflation risks as weighted to the upside because of concerns that supply disruptions and labor shortages might last longer and might have larger or more persistent effects on prices and wages than they currently assumed,” the minutes stated.

The document noted that “a few participants” said there could be some “downside risks” for inflation as long-standing factors that have kept prices in check come back into play. The majority of Fed officials have been holding to theme that the current price increases are transitory and due to supply chain bottlenecks, and other factors likely to subside.

Inflation pressures have continued, though, with a reading Wednesday showing that consumer prices are up 5.4% over the past year, the fastest pace in decades.

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Consumer prices increased slightly more than expected in September as food and energy price rises offset declines in used cars, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The consumer price index for all items rose 0.4% for the month, compared with the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate. On a year-over-year basis, prices increased 5.4% versus the estimate for 5.3% and the highest since January 1991.

However, excluding volatile food and energy prices, the CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 4% year over year, against respective estimates for 0.3% and 4%.

Dow futures were slightly positive following the news but fell sharply through the morning, while government bond yields were mostly lower as investors gravitated toward safe-haven fied income.

Gasoline prices rose another 1.2% for the month, bringing the annual increase to 42.1%. Fuel oil shot up 3.9%, for a 42.6% year over year surge.

Food prices also showed notable gains for the month, with food at home rising 1.2%. Meat prices rose 3.3% just in September and increased 12.6% year over year.

“Food and energy are more variable, but that’s where the problem is,” said Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments. “Hopefully, we start solving our supply shortage problem. But when the dust settles, inflation is not going back to zero to 2 [percent] where it was for the last decade.”

Used car prices, which have been at the center of much of the inflation pressures in recent months, fell 0.7% for the month, pulling the 12-month increase down to 24.4%. However, the continued rise in prices even with the drop in vehicle costs could lend credence to the notion that inflation is more persistent than policymakers think.

Airline fares tumbled 6.4% for the month after falling 9.1% in July.

Shelter prices, which make up about a third of the CPI, increased 0.4% for the month and are up 3.2% for the 12-month period. Owners’ equivalent rent or how much an owner of a property would have to pay to rent it, increased 0.4% as well, its largest monthly gain since June 2006.

“This might just be an overshoot after a couple of relatively modest increases, but we can’t rule out the idea that the fundamentals — rapid house price gains, more aggressive landlord pricing, low inventory, and faster wage growth — are pushing up the trend,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Apparel prices also declined 1.1% in September while transportation services dropped 0.5%. Both sectors have been rising consistently and still showed respective annual gains of 3.4% and 4.4%.

Federal Reserve officials have called the current inflation run “transitory,” and attribute it largely to supply chain and demand issues that they expect to subside in the months ahead.

However, that view has been receiving substantial pushback lately.

“This is one more data point to say, ‘Fed, your trying to convince us that inflation is transitory is just not believable,'” Doll said. “If you know anybody who doesn’t have to live somewhere, doesn’t eat any food and doesn’t use energy, then inflation is maybe not a particular problem. But come on.”

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned that the Fed and its global peers should be preparing contingency plans should inflation prove persistent. That would mean raising interest rates sooner than expected to control the price gains.

Later in the day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC that he thinks the Fed should be more aggressive in withdrawing its economic support, and in particular its monthly bond purchases, should inflation prove a problem and require rate hikes next year. Also on Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the factors that have pushed inflation higher “will not be brief.”

“Today’s number shouldn’t move the needle for the Fed,” said Seema Shah, chief investment strategist at Principal Global Investors. “Inflation has already surpassed its goal and, if anything, the higher-than-expected September CPI just reinforces the need to start tapering. November tapering, here we come.”

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday took the transitory side of the argument, saying that the current conditions will clear up and inflation won’t be a factor in 2022.

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Bedbugs are small, reddish-brown, and oval-shaped insects that feed on humans and animals while they sleep. Their bite is red and itchy, often with a darker red spot in the middle. Sometimes they’re found in a cluster or in a straight line. Those who don’t have a bedbug allergy may have bites that are small […]

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